A million acres too much here and there added up to an embarrassing moment for USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service in late October. After the agency released its Oct. 10 crop production report, Farm Service Agency analysts observed discrepancies between NASS’s acreage numbers and those in the definitive FSA database.
NASS reissued the Oct. 10 crop production report on Oct. 28 to reflect the corrections. NASS repeated its acreage estimation process for dry edible beans, canola, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and sunflower. The errors also resulted in the World Agricultural Outlook Board reissuing its world agricultural supply and demand estimates.
Corn planted and harvested area were both lowered 1 million acres from the Oct. 10 forecast. Corn production is forecast at 12.033 billion bushels, down 167 million from the Oct. 10 forecast. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower at 5.3 billion with the smaller crop and higher expected sorghum feeding.
Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower at 1.950 billion on tighter supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 1.088 billion bushels, down 66 million from the previous forecast. The season-average farm price range is raised 5 cents on each end of the range to $4.25 to $5.25 per bushel.
Planted and harvested area for soybeans were both reduced 1.1 million acres. Soybean production is forecast at 2.94 billion bushels, down 45 million from the Oct. 10 forecast. Soybean exports are projected 30 million bushels lower at 1.02 billion bushels reflecting reduced supplies and higher prices.
Soybean crush is unchanged from the Oct. 10 projection leaving the soybean meal and soybean oil balance sheets unchanged. Ending stocks are projected at 205 million bushels, down 15 million from the Oct. 10 forecast. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $9.70 to $11.20, up 10 cents on both ends of the range.
Sorghum production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 8 million from the Oct. 10 forecast. Feed and residual use was raised 10 million bushels with increased supplies. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.70 to $4.70 per bushel.
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