USDA lowers cotton production estimate

In its Jan. 12 Crop Production report, USDA’s estimated U.S. cotton production was lowered 577,000 bales, due mainly to a reduction in Texas.

Domestic mill use was reduced 100,000 bales to 4.2 million bales, reflecting lower activity in November. The export forecast was reduced 250,000 bales to 12 million bales due to lower world import demand.

World cotton production was reduced 1.7 million bales, mainly in India, the United States, and Argentina. Consumption was lowered in China, India, Pakistan, and the United States, reflecting a continued slowdown in global textile demand. World imports were reduced sharply, due mainly to lower consumption and imports by China. World ending stocks were raised 1 percent from last month.

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2008-09 are projected 316 million bushels higher this month on higher estimated production of 12.1 billion bushels and lower expected use. Estimated ethanol corn use was lowered 100 million bushels as sustained negative ethanol production margins since early December have reduced incentives for ethanol output.

Exports are projected 50 million bushels lower based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date.

Globally, corn production for China was raised 5.5 million tons on higher area and yields. Mexico production was raised 1million tons due to favorable weather. Brazil and Argentina corn production was lowered 2 million tons due to extended dryness and heat during December.

Global corn consumption was lowered with much of the reduction coming from changes to the U.S. balance sheet. Global corn ending stocks for 2008-09 are projected 12.2 million tons higher with the United States and China accounting for most of the increase.

U.S. soybean production is estimated at 2.959 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from last month based on both higher yields and harvested area. Soybean yield is estimated at 39.6 bushels per acre. Soybean exports are raised 50 million bushels to 1.1 billion due to strong sales and shipments to China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels, up 20 million.

Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2008-09 were raised 32 million bushels this month on lower projected domestic use. Feed and residual use is projected 30 million bushels lower.

Global 2008-09 wheat production is projected at 682.9 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month. World wheat consumption was lowered and global ending stocks were increased 1 million tons mostly reflecting the increase in U.S. ending stocks.

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TAGS: Cotton
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