USDA is projecting a 16.7 million bale U.S. cotton crop for 2010, based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report, 7-percent abandonment and projected yield of 815 pounds per harvested acre.
In its May 11 Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA backed off the 10-year average abandonment of 11 percent due to unusually favorable soil moisture in Texas.
Domestic mill use is projected at 3.3 million bales, a marginal reduction from 2009-10. Cotton exports are projected to rise 1.5 million bales to 13.5 million, as foreign demand is expected to outpace supply. Ending stocks are projected at 3 million bales, the lowest since 1995-96. The projected range for the marketing-year average price received by producers is 60 to 74 cents per pound.
World cotton production is projected to rise nearly 11 million bales in 2010-11, but supplies will increase less than 1 percent from last season. Production is expected to rise in nearly all cotton-producing countries, with the United States, India, Brazil, and Pakistan accounting for about 70 percent of the increase.
World consumption is projected to rise 2.8 percent, while an increase in China’s imports to 11.5 million bales is boosting world trade. World ending stocks are projected to decline 2.6 million bales to 50.1 million bales. The stocks-to-consumption ratio of 42 percent is the lowest since 1994-95.
Revisions to the old crop balance sheets resulted in an increase of 1.8 million bales in world ending stocks. China accounts for most of the increase, due to higher production and imports.
U.S. corn production for 2010-11 is projected at 13.4 billion bushels, up 260 million from 2009-10 due to a 2.3-million-acre increase in intended plantings. Based on the rapid pace of 2010 planting, 2010-11 yield is projected at 163.5 bushels per acre.
Total U.S. corn use for 2010-11 is projected 2 percent higher. Corn ethanol use is projected at 4.6 billion bushels. Exports are projected 3 percent higher, while U.S. corn ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected 5 percent higher, at 1.8 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel compared with last year’s $3.50 to $3.70 per bushel.
Global corn consumption is projected at a record 827.9 million tons, up 19 million from 2009-10, with nearly three-quarters of the increase in foreign markets. World corn ending stocks are projected at 154.2 million tons, up 7.2 million from 2009-10 and the highest since 2000-01.
U.S. soybean production is projected at 3.3 billion bushels, down 49 million bushels from the record crop produced in 2009. Soybean yields are projected at 42.9 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from the 2009 record. Soybean ending stocks for 2009-10 are unchanged at 190 million bushels. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 2.9 billion pounds, up 700 million from 2009-10.
A rebound in South American supplies from last year’s drought-reduced levels is projected to limit U.S. soybean exports to 1.35 billion bushels in 2010-11, down from a record 1.455 billion in 2009-10. Ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 365 million bushels, up 175 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010-11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel compared with $9.50 per bushel in 2009-10.
Global soybean production is projected to decrease 3 percent to 250.1 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 50 million tons, down 4 million from last year. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 65 million tons, down 3 million from 2009-10.
Beginning wheat stocks are up 45 percent from 2009-10, the highest in a decade. Total wheat production is projected at 2.043 billion bushels, down 173 million from last year. U.S. ending stocks are projected at nearly 1 billion bushels, the highest since 1987-88. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel, compared with the 2009-10 projection of $4.90 per bushel.
Global 2010-11 wheat production is projected at 672.2 million tons, down 1 percent from 2009-10 and the third largest production on record if realized.
Global wheat consumption is projected 2 percent higher for 2010-11 with larger global supplies supporting growth in demand. Global stocks are projected at 198.1 million tons, up 4.7 million from 2009-10. Chinese wheat stocks are projected 8.3 million tons higher.
e-mail: [email protected]